TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
20% - 24%
- Kalshi
20% - 24% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 10, 8:49 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks what share of the vote Tom Steyer will capture in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary election. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that Steyer receives between 16% and 20% of the popular vote—stands at 32.0%, while the probability he garners between 12% and 16% is 28.0%. Resolution will be determined by the certified percentage of the popular vote as officially recorded. Watch for Steyer's campaign announcements and polling data leading up to the June 2, 2026 primary election to gauge his trajectory.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on Tom Steyer's certified vote percentage in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary, divided into nine distinct ranges from below 4% to 32% or higher. Vote percentage is calculated as total votes received divided by total valid votes cast, rounded to two decimal places. Resolution uses only certified official results, excluding preliminary counts. Write-in votes are included if appearing in certified results; invalid or spoiled ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available, all outcomes resolve to No. Recounts changing the certified percentage before expiration use the most recent certified figure.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect traders' collective expectations about Tom Steyer's primary vote share, which often diverge from traditional polling. While polls capture voter intent at a single moment, prediction markets incorporate ongoing information, betting incentives, and real-money stakes. Markets tend to be more dynamic and forward-looking than static poll snapshots. Comparing current market prices to recent California gubernatorial polling can reveal whether traders expect Steyer's support to grow, decline, or remain stable relative to surveyed voter preferences.
The California governor primary: Tom Steyer vote market resolves on Jun 2, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official vote count and results certified by California election authorities for the 2026 gubernatorial primary. The outcome depends on the final percentage of votes Steyer receives across all primary ballots cast statewide. Once official results are published and verified, the market settles based on which outcome bracket or contract condition his actual vote share satisfies.
Several catalysts could shift market odds for Tom Steyer's primary vote share. Major campaign announcements, debate performances, and endorsements from prominent California figures could reshape trader expectations. Shifts in polling data, particularly among key demographic groups, often trigger market repricing. Media coverage of his campaign momentum or setbacks influences sentiment. Fundraising reports and spending levels signal campaign viability. Late-breaking news about other candidates' entry or exit from the race may redirect voter attention and support. Turnout forecasts and early voting patterns in the weeks before the primary also drive market movement.
