TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
24% - 28%
- Kalshi
24% - 28% - Kalshi
1W
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Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 10, 8:49 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks what share of the popular vote Steve Hilton will receive in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary election. On Kalshi, the probability that Hilton receives between 20% and 24% of the vote stands at 32.0%, while the probability he receives between 24% and 28% is at 24.0%. Resolution will be based on the certified popular vote percentage reported for the primary. The outcome will be determined following the June 2, 2026 California gubernatorial primary election.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on Steve Hilton's certified vote percentage in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary, divided into nine distinct ranges from below 4% to 32% or higher. Vote percentage is calculated as total votes received divided by total valid votes cast, rounded to two decimal places. Resolution uses only certified official results, excluding preliminary counts. Write-in votes are included if appearing in certified results; invalid or spoiled ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available, all outcomes resolve to No. Recounts changing the certified percentage before expiration use the most recent certified figure.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling averages because markets incorporate real-money incentives and forward-looking expectations. While polls measure current voter sentiment at a snapshot in time, prediction markets reflect traders' beliefs about Hilton's final primary vote share, accounting for campaign momentum, fundraising, and evolving dynamics. Markets may price in scenarios that polls have not yet captured. Comparing Kalshi implied probabilities to independent polling aggregates can reveal whether traders expect Hilton's support to grow, shrink, or remain stable through Jun 2, 2027.
The California governor primary: Steve Hilton vote market resolves on Jun 2, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial primary election, which will establish Hilton's actual vote percentage. The market outcome depends on whether his final vote share matches the contract specifications. Traders should monitor official state election results and any official corrections or certifications that may affect the final tally.
Several catalysts could shift market pricing for Hilton's primary vote share. Major campaign announcements, debate performances, and media coverage will influence trader expectations. Endorsements from prominent California figures or national Republicans could boost his perceived viability. Fundraising reports and polling releases will provide hard data on his support trajectory. Primary field dynamics—such as other candidates entering or exiting the race—may reshape vote distribution. Unexpected controversies or policy positions could also trigger repricing. Traders monitor these signals continuously through Jun 2, 2027 to adjust their positions.
