TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Steve Hilton, 5+ pts
- Kalshi
Steve Hilton, 5+ pts - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 10, 8:40 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Steve Hilton will win California's 2026 gubernatorial primary election by at least 5 percentage points, with current probability at 18.0% on Kalshi. A secondary outcome tracks whether his margin will exceed 3 percentage points, currently at 16.0%. Resolution will be determined by official primary results as reported by California election authorities. Watch the primary election results on November 3, 2027, when the final margin of victory will be calculated and the market will settle.
Kalshi
The margin of victory is calculated as Steve Hilton's vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the candidate finishing immediately behind him if Hilton wins, or the first-place finisher if Hilton loses. Margin ranges are inclusive of their lower bound and exclusive of their upper bound, with no rounding applied. For example, a margin of 5.99999% falls within the 5-6% range, while exactly 6% falls within the 6-7% range. If Hilton runs under multiple party lines or appears multiple times on the ballot, votes are aggregated. A Hilton victory produces a positive margin, a loss produces a negative margin, and a tie for first place results in a margin of zero. For uncontested races where Hilton is the only candidate, the margin is 100 percentage points.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling averages because markets incorporate trader expectations, campaign momentum, and real-money incentives that polls may lag. While polls measure voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate continuous information flow and financial commitment from participants betting on the actual outcome. For the California Governor Primary margin of victory, market odds reflect traders' assessments of whether the winning candidate will exceed specific margin thresholds, potentially differing from pollster projections based on sample timing and methodology.
The California Governor Primary margin of victory market resolves on Nov 3, 2027 following the completion of the primary election. Resolution is determined by the official margin between the top two finishers in California's gubernatorial primary, as reported by state election authorities. The outcome will settle based on whether the actual winning margin meets or exceeds the threshold specified in the contract, with final results typically confirmed after vote counting and any necessary recounts are completed.
Major catalysts for price movement include campaign announcements, debate performances, endorsements from prominent California figures, shifts in voter registration data, and breaking news affecting candidate viability. Economic developments, policy controversies, or scandals involving primary contenders can rapidly reshape trader expectations about the final margin. Media coverage intensity, turnout forecasts, and late-stage polling releases also drive market repricing. Additionally, candidate withdrawals or strategic shifts in campaign spending may signal changing competitive dynamics, prompting traders to adjust odds on whether the winning margin will exceed the 3-percentage-point threshold.
