TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
4% - 8%
- Kalshi
4% - 8% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 10, 8:48 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks the share of votes Katie Porter is expected to receive in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary election. On Kalshi, the probability that Porter receives between 8% and 12% of the popular vote stands at 41.0%, while the probability she receives between 4% and 8% is at 38.0%. Resolution will be based on the certified popular vote percentage from the California Secretary of State following the primary election scheduled for June 2, 2026.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on Katie Porter's certified vote percentage in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary, divided into nine distinct ranges from below 4% to 32% or higher. Vote percentage is calculated as total votes received divided by total valid votes cast, rounded to two decimal places. Resolution uses only certified official results, excluding preliminary counts. Write-in votes are included if appearing in certified results; invalid or spoiled ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available, all outcomes resolve to No. Recounts changing the certified percentage before expiration use the most recent certified figure.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect traders' aggregated expectations for Katie Porter's primary vote share, often incorporating polling data alongside campaign momentum, donor activity, and endorsement patterns. While traditional polls measure voter intent at a single moment, prediction markets continuously update as new information arrives. Divergences between market odds and polling averages typically signal that traders are pricing in factors polls may not yet capture, such as late-breaking campaign news or shifts in voter enthusiasm.
The California governor primary: Katie Porter vote market resolves on Jun 2, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official vote tallies released by California election authorities following the primary election. The specific outcome—whether Katie Porter's vote share falls within the contracted range or outside it—will be verified against certified state election results. Traders should monitor official California Secretary of State announcements for final vote counts.
Katie Porter's market odds may shift in response to new polling releases, campaign spending reports, major endorsements, debate performances, and media coverage intensity. Shifts in the broader California political landscape—such as changes in frontrunner positioning or voter turnout expectations—can also influence her projected vote share. Legislative actions, high-profile statements on key issues, and grassroots organizing metrics may signal momentum changes. Finally, late-breaking national political events or controversies could reshape California primary dynamics and trader expectations for her final vote total.
