TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Below 4%
- Kalshi
Below 4% - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
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Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 10, 8:48 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks what share of the popular vote Eric Swalwell will receive in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary election. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that Swalwell receives between 0% and 4% of the vote—stands at 96.0%, while the probability he captures between 4% and 8% is 1.0%. Resolution will be determined by the certified popular vote percentage from the California gubernatorial primary scheduled for June 2, 2026.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on Eric Swalwell's certified vote percentage in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary, divided into nine distinct ranges from below 4% to 32% or higher. Vote percentage is calculated as total votes received divided by total valid votes cast, rounded to two decimal places. Resolution uses only certified official results, excluding preliminary counts. Write-in votes are included if appearing in certified results; invalid or spoiled ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available, all outcomes resolve to No. Recounts changing the certified percentage before expiration use the most recent certified figure.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect aggregated trader expectations about Swalwell's primary vote share, which often diverge from traditional polling. While polls measure voter intent at a single point in time, prediction markets incorporate real-money incentives and continuously updated information. Traders may price in factors like campaign momentum, fundraising, endorsements, and media coverage that polls capture with a lag. Comparing market odds to recent polling can reveal where informed traders see gaps between current voter sentiment and likely primary outcomes.
The market resolves on Jun 2, 2027 following the California gubernatorial primary election. Resolution is determined by the official vote totals reported by California election authorities for Eric Swalwell's share of votes cast in the primary. The outcome will reflect his actual performance relative to the vote-share brackets offered in the contract. Once official results are certified, the market settles based on which outcome bracket Swalwell's final vote percentage falls into.
Several factors could shift market odds for Swalwell's primary vote share. Major campaign announcements, debate performances, or endorsements from prominent California Democrats could boost his perceived viability. Conversely, scandals, fundraising shortfalls, or withdrawal from the race would likely drive odds lower. Media coverage intensity and voter registration trends in key districts may also influence trader expectations. Shifts in the broader Democratic primary field—such as other candidates entering or exiting—could reallocate voter support and reshape Swalwell's projected vote total.
