TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Tom Steyer
- Kalshi
Tom Steyer - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 10, 8:47 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market on Kalshi tracks which candidate will finish in third place in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary election. Tom Steyer is currently priced at 66.0% to secure the third-place finish, while Steve Hilton stands at 13.0%. Resolution will be determined by the certified results from the California Secretary of State following the primary election. Watch the primary election results on June 2027 for final certification of the third-place finisher.
Kalshi
The market resolves based solely on primary election results using the specified counting method. For plurality voting, rank is determined by vote count or percentage. For ranked choice voting, rank is determined by elimination order with the runner-up eliminated in the final round for second place. For two-round systems, rank is based on final round results if the election proceeds to a second round, otherwise first-round totals are used. For proportional representation, rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order. In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving third place resolve all named candidate markets to No unless a specific Write-in or Other option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond the market expiration date, all markets resolve to No.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling averages because markets incorporate real-money incentives and forward-looking trader expectations, while polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment. For the California governor primary 3rd place outcome, market participants may weight factors like candidate fundraising, campaign momentum, and historical primary performance differently than pollsters do. Markets tend to update faster than polls when new information emerges, potentially offering earlier signals about shifting dynamics. Comparing the two approaches reveals whether traders are pricing in scenarios that surveys have not yet captured.
The California governor primary: 3rd place market resolves on Jun 2, 2027, following the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial primary election. Resolution is determined by the official vote tallies and candidate rankings announced by California election authorities. The outcome will be confirmed once all ballots are counted and the third-place finisher is officially declared. Traders should monitor official state election sources and major news outlets for final results to understand how their positions will settle.
Several catalysts could shift odds for the third-place outcome in California's 2026 gubernatorial primary. Major campaign announcements, candidate endorsements, and fundraising reports will influence perceptions of viability. Polling releases showing changes in candidate support or new entrants to the race could reshape third-place dynamics significantly. Debate performances, media coverage, and campaign gaffes may alter trader expectations about which candidates remain competitive. Additionally, candidate withdrawals or consolidations could dramatically reshuffle the field and alter the probability of specific third-place scenarios. Economic developments and state-level political events may also influence voter preferences and candidate momentum.
