TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Steve Hilton
- Kalshi
Steve Hilton - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 10, 8:47 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks which candidate will finish in second place in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary election. On Kalshi, Steve Hilton is priced at 50.0% to finish second, while Xavier Becerra stands at 29.0%. Resolution will be determined by the certified official results from the primary election. Watch the June 2026 primary election results for the final vote tallies that will settle this market.
Kalshi
The market resolves based solely on primary election results using the specified counting method. For plurality voting, rank is determined by vote count or percentage. For ranked choice voting, rank is determined by elimination order with the runner-up eliminated in the final round for second place. For two-round systems, rank is based on final round results if the election proceeds to a second round, otherwise first-round totals are used. For proportional representation, rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order. In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving second place resolve all named candidate markets to No unless a specific Write-in or Other option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond the market expiration date, all markets resolve to No.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate real-time information, campaign momentum, and fundraising trends that polls may lag. While polls measure voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets reflect ongoing bets by participants who have financial incentive to forecast accurately. For the California governor primary second-place race, market prices tend to weight recent developments and insider knowledge more heavily than snapshot polls. Comparing the two reveals whether markets are pricing in factors polls have not yet captured or whether consensus remains aligned.
The California governor primary: 2nd place market resolves on Jun 2, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial primary election. The market will settle based on which candidate receives the second-highest vote total in the primary contest. Once the California Secretary of State certifies the primary results, the outcome becomes final and contracts are settled accordingly. Traders should monitor official election sources and candidate announcements leading up to primary day to track the race dynamics.
Key catalysts for this market include major candidate announcements or campaign suspensions, debate performances, endorsements from prominent California figures, and shifts in polling data. Fundraising reports and media coverage of frontrunners can reshape perceptions of who is viable for second place. Primary election results from early states or neighboring regions may signal momentum. Campaign scandals, gaffes, or strategic pivots can rapidly alter odds. Additionally, voter registration trends, turnout models, and last-minute campaign spending surges in the final weeks before Jun 2, 2027 typically drive significant price movement as traders reassess probabilities.
