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$154.8b

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$277,138,640

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2,984,640,614

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$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

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4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

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California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
kalshi

California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026

Volume:
$285,547

Above 690,000

 - Kalshi

Above 690,000 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 28, 2026

Closed: Oct 28, 9:12 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 690,000

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$35,849
N/A
N/A
$11,280
2w 6d 8h
Yes
kalshi

Above 680,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$24,666
N/A
N/A
$11,371
2w 6d 8h
Yes
kalshi

Above 720,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$78,260
N/A
N/A
$19,795
2w 6d 8h
No
kalshi

Above 740,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$59,078
N/A
N/A
$7,612
2w 6d 8h
No
kalshi

Above 700,000

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39,971
N/A
N/A
$27,920
2w 6d 8h
No
kalshi

Above 710,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$35,710
N/A
N/A
$10,156
2w 6d 8h
No
kalshi

Above 730,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,014
N/A
N/A
$7,367
2w 6d 8h
No
Total markets: 7

Description

The California FAIR Plan provides fire insurance to property owners in high-risk areas when standard insurance is unavailable. Tracking the number of policies in force offers insight into the plan's reach and the underlying risk landscape it covers. Monitoring these figures helps gauge changes in insurance availability and consumer reliance on the plan over time.

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on the total number of California FAIR Plan policies in force as officially reported by the California FAIR Plan Association as of September 30, 2026. The underlying data includes all residential, commercial, and Businessowner’s Program policies counted at that specific point in time, representing a policy inventory rather than new policies written during the year. The markets remain open beyond the September 30 date because the policy count is typically released in a subsequent quarterly data publication. Resolution is determined using the first official figure released for September 30, 2026, with any later revisions not affecting the outcome. Each market has a specific threshold: if the reported policies in force exceed 700,000, 710,000, 720,000, or 730,000 respectively, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the California FAIR Plan policy market tracks real-time odds and price history exclusively on Kalshi. It shows how traders value the likelihood of specific policy outcomes as of Nov 23, 2026. You can also view 24-hour volume of $37,078 to gauge recent trading interest. This single-venue view updates continuously, reflecting market sentiment on Kalshi without any cross-platform aggregation.

This market resolves around Nov 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will hinge on official announcements or published data confirming whether the specified California FAIR Plan policies remain in force at the close of the reporting period. No additional interpretation beyond publicly available records is required.

Several key signals could shift this market before Nov 23, 2026. Legislative sessions, budget proposals, natural disaster funding debates, and any policy announcements from state officials are primary catalysts. Additionally, economic reports or changes in disaster risk assessments may influence trader expectations. Media coverage of major incidents or policy debates can also cause rapid price swings, especially if they suggest a higher or lower likelihood of the FAIR Plan policies remaining active at the end of the reporting period.