TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,997,338
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,395,155,069
395,664
Markets across
30,076
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 20, 7:48 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market on Kalshi tracks which candidate will win California's 14th congressional district special election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The leading outcome—Aisha Wahab winning the race—currently stands at 93.0%, with an alternative outcome at 5.0%. Resolution will be determined by official election results from the California Secretary of State. Watch for candidate announcements and campaign developments in the months leading up to the November 2026 election date, as these will likely shape voter preferences in this closely watched House race.
Kalshi
The winner of the CA-14 special election is determined by which candidate receives the most votes. Resolution is eligible for accelerated determination once major media organizations reach consensus on the election winner.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate real-time information, fundraising data, and campaign momentum that polls may lag. While polls capture voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets reflect ongoing bets by participants who have financial incentive to forecast accurately. The CA-14 market has attracted $286,577 in total trading activity, suggesting active trader engagement. Comparing Kalshi odds to recent polls can reveal whether the market is pricing in factors polls have not yet captured or whether consensus exists between the two signals.
The CA-14 special election winner market resolves on Nov 3, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official result of California's 14th congressional district special election. The market will settle based on which candidate receives the most votes and is declared the winner by California election authorities. Traders should monitor official election commission announcements and certified results to understand the final outcome. Any recounts, legal challenges, or certification delays may affect the timing of market resolution, so stay informed through official state election sources.
Key catalysts for CA-14 special election winner odds include candidate debate performances, major endorsements from state or national figures, campaign spending announcements, and shifts in local or national political momentum. Polling releases—especially from high-quality firms—often trigger sharp repricing. Voter registration deadlines, early voting periods, and get-out-the-vote efforts can signal which campaigns are building ground strength. National political events, scandals, or legislative developments may also influence the race if they affect voter sentiment in the district. Traders monitor all these signals continuously, so expect volatility as the Nov 3, 2026 election date approaches.
