TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
40% - 45%
- Kalshi
40% - 45% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 10, 8:20 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
A candidate participates in the 2026 California congressional primary election, with the certified popular vote percentage determining the outcome across multiple predefined ranges.
Kalshi
Vote percentage is calculated as total votes received by Scott Wiener divided by total valid votes cast, multiplied by 100. Resolution uses certified official results only, excluding preliminary counts. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results; invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. For ranked choice voting, the percentage is based on the first round unless otherwise specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage determines resolution. Votes for the same person listed multiple times or under multiple parties are summed together.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling averages because markets incorporate real-money incentives and forward-looking trader expectations. While polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate ongoing information and allow traders to profit from accurate forecasts. For the CA-11 primary, comparing Kalshi odds to recent polls and analyst projections can reveal whether the market is pricing in factors—such as late campaign momentum or demographic shifts—that surveys may not yet fully reflect.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the CA-11 primary: Scott Wiener vote percent contract is priced as a continuous outcome reflecting the market's collective estimate of his final vote share. Traders buy and sell shares representing different vote-percentage ranges or point estimates, with the price of each contract reflecting the implied probability. Kalshi's order book and real-time pricing allow participants to enter or exit positions dynamically, and the final settlement price is determined by the actual vote count reported after the primary election concludes.
The CA-11 primary: Scott Wiener vote percent market resolves on Jun 2, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official vote count for Scott Wiener in the California District 11 primary election. Once election results are certified and reported, the market settles based on his actual vote percentage. Traders holding positions aligned with the final outcome receive payouts proportional to their stake, while those on the opposite side of the trade realize losses.
Several catalysts could shift market odds for Scott Wiener's vote share. Major campaign announcements, endorsements from prominent local or state figures, and debate performances can reshape trader expectations. Media coverage of primary dynamics, shifts in voter registration or turnout forecasts, and developments in competing candidates' campaigns all influence the market. Additionally, late-breaking polling releases, campaign spending changes, and grassroots mobilization efforts in the district may prompt traders to reprrice Wiener's expected vote percentage as new information emerges.
