TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
15% - 20%
- Kalshi
15% - 20% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 10, 8:20 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
A candidate participates in the 2026 California congressional primary election, with the certified popular vote percentage determining the outcome across multiple predefined ranges.
Kalshi
Vote percentage is calculated as total votes received by Saikat Chakrabarti divided by total valid votes cast, multiplied by 100. Resolution uses certified official results only, excluding preliminary counts. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results; invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. For ranked choice voting, the percentage is based on the first round unless otherwise specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage determines resolution. Votes for the same person listed multiple times or under multiple parties are summed together.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi and traditional polling averages often diverge because markets incorporate real-time information, trader conviction, and financial incentives that polls may lag. Markets tend to be more dynamic and responsive to breaking news, campaign developments, and late-breaking shifts in voter sentiment. While polls provide snapshot estimates at specific moments, prediction markets continuously update as new information emerges. Comparing the two can reveal whether traders believe polls underestimate or overestimate Chakrabarti's vote share heading into the primary.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, Chakrabarti's vote-share outcome is priced as a binary or range contract reflecting trader expectations of his final vote percentage in the CA-11 primary. The price moves based on order flow, new information, and shifting sentiment among market participants. Traders buy contracts if they believe he will exceed the specified threshold and sell if they expect him to fall short. The market price represents the collective probability estimate, updated in real time as campaign events unfold and election day approaches.
The market resolves on Jun 2, 2027 following the California 11th district primary election. The outcome is determined by Chakrabarti's official final vote percentage as reported by election authorities. Once results are certified, the contract settles based on whether his actual vote share matches the specified outcome criteria. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome receive their winnings, while those on the wrong side of the trade lose their stake. Resolution occurs after official vote counts are finalized and verified.
Key catalysts include campaign announcements, endorsements from prominent local or national figures, debate performances, and media coverage of Chakrabarti and his opponents. Fundraising reports, voter registration trends, and grassroots organizing efforts can shift market expectations. Late-breaking scandals or controversies involving any candidate may trigger sharp repricing. Polling releases closer to election day often move markets significantly as they provide updated snapshots of voter preferences. Ground game reports and turnout models in the final weeks can also influence trader positioning ahead of Jun 2, 2027.
