TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$85,014,378
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,391,695,592
394,774
Markets across
30,069
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,615
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 10, 8:21 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks which candidate will win first place in the 2026 California 11th congressional district Democratic primary election. On Kalshi, Scott Wiener holds 94.0% probability of placing first, while Saikat Chakrabarti holds 5.0%. The market resolves based on official primary results from the California Secretary of State. Traders should monitor candidate campaign announcements, endorsements, and polling data leading up to the primary election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on which candidate receives the most votes in the 2026 CA-11 primary election. The candidate with the highest vote total wins the primary and the market resolves accordingly.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because markets incorporate real-money incentives and forward-looking sentiment. While polls capture voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets reflect traders' beliefs about the actual election outcome, including uncertainty and late-breaking developments. For the CA-11 primary, comparing Kalshi odds to recent public polls reveals whether the market is pricing in information polls may not yet reflect. Markets tend to be more dynamic and responsive to breaking news than static poll averages.
The CA-11 primary: first place market resolves on Nov 3, 2026, following the official primary election date. Resolution is determined by which candidate receives the most votes in California's 11th congressional district primary. Once official results are certified, the market settles based on the candidate who finishes in first place. Traders holding positions on the winning outcome receive their payout, while losing positions expire worthless. The resolution process relies on official election data from California election authorities.
Key catalysts for CA-11 primary odds include major endorsements from state or national figures, campaign finance disclosures showing spending surges, debate performances, and local media coverage shifts. Polling releases—especially late-stage surveys—often trigger sharp price moves as traders recalibrate their models. Unexpected candidate withdrawals, scandals, or gaffes can rapidly reshape the race. Voter registration trends and early voting data closer to election day provide real-time signals that may diverge from older polls. Each of these events typically generates immediate trading activity on Kalshi.
