TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Mai Vang
- Kalshi
Mai Vang - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 9, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 9, 7:27 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Doris Matsui will advance from the 2026 California primary election in the CA-07 congressional district. On Kalshi, the probability stands at 98.8%. The market resolves based on whether Zachariah Wooden advances in the 2026 CA-07 primary, as determined by official election results. Watch for candidate filing deadlines and campaign announcements leading up to the primary election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate real-time information, campaign developments, and fundraising data that polls may lag. While polls measure voter sentiment at a single moment, prediction markets reward accuracy over time, incentivizing traders to price in late-breaking news and ground-level intelligence. For the CA-07 primary, comparing market odds to recent polls can reveal whether insiders expect a shift in voter preference or whether polling consensus aligns with trader expectations. Both sources offer value: polls show current voter preference, while markets reflect informed bets on the actual outcome.
The CA-07 primary: Who will advance market resolves on Nov 3, 2026, following the California primary election. Resolution is determined by official results from the California Secretary of State, which confirm which candidates received the highest vote totals and advanced to the general election. The market will settle once those results are certified and verified. Traders should monitor official election authority announcements and news coverage as the date approaches to stay informed on any procedural changes or scheduling updates that might affect the resolution timeline.
Several catalysts could shift odds for the CA-07 primary: Who will advance. Major campaign announcements, endorsements from high-profile figures, and fundraising reports often trigger repricing as traders reassess candidate viability. Debate performances, local media coverage, and grassroots organizing efforts can signal momentum changes. Unexpected candidate withdrawals or scandals may eliminate contenders or consolidate support. Voter registration trends and early voting data released closer to election day provide concrete signals about turnout and preference. National political shifts or changes in district demographics can also influence market pricing. Traders continuously monitor these signals to adjust positions ahead of the primary election.
