TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$85,014,378
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,391,695,592
394,774
Markets across
30,069
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,615
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 30, 2:06 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks which party will win the House seat for California's 4th district in the 2026 election. On Kalshi, the Democratic candidate is priced at 95.0%, while the Republican candidate stands at 5.0%. Resolution will be determined by which party the House member sworn in for CA-04 for the term beginning in 2027 belongs to, according to official House records. Watch for candidate announcements and primary results throughout 2025 and into the 2026 election cycle to assess shifts in the race dynamics.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the party affiliation of the House member sworn in for CA-04 for the term beginning in 2027. The market may resolve early based on consensus projections from major media organizations.
Frequently asked questions
The CA-04 House winner market resolves on Jan 4, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official results of the House election in California's 4th congressional district. The market will settle once the race is called and certified by state election authorities, with the winning outcome paying out in full and the losing outcome expiring worthless. Traders should monitor official election timelines and any potential recounts or legal challenges that could affect the final determination.
Key events that could shift CA-04 House winner odds include campaign announcements, debate performances, endorsements from prominent political figures, and shifts in voter registration or turnout models. Major national political developments, economic data, or legislative votes affecting the district could also influence trader sentiment. Polling releases specific to CA-04 often trigger immediate market repricing, as do fundraising reports and media coverage of candidate scandals or policy positions. Late-breaking local news and changes in the national political environment closer to election day typically generate the largest price movements.
