TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 11:40 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The market assesses voter engagement in Bulgaria's 2026 presidential election by tracking whether the total number of ballots cast meets specific thresholds. It focuses solely on the first round, counting both valid and invalid votes reported by the Central Election Commission. Results are based on official certifications, excluding preliminary data or appeals.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the total number of valid and invalid ballots cast in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, as officially certified by the Central Election Commission (CIK). The count includes 'I do not support anyone' votes and invalid ballots from all polling stations, including those abroad, but excludes registered voters, voter-list signatures, and votes from the potential second round. Only officially certified results qualify for resolution, meaning provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are counted only if included in the final certification. The contract further specifies that resolution is subject to the Fully-Conducted Elections provision and the Accelerated Resolution Upon Designated Media Source Declarations clause. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results are explicitly excluded from consideration, as are ongoing appeals against the certified outcome. Markets resolve to 'Yes' if the certified total meets or exceeds the specified threshold for that market; otherwise, they resolve to 'No.'
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages for the Bulgarian presidential election. While polls attempt to capture a snapshot of current voter intentions, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, incorporating information beyond simple stated preferences. This includes factors like voter turnout models, strategic voting considerations, and the potential impact of unforeseen events. The difference between the two can highlight discrepancies in expectations and provide a more nuanced understanding of the election’s dynamics.
This market resolves around Feb 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official results released by the Bulgarian Central Election Commission will be used to determine the winner and the final voter turnout percentage. The resolution will reflect the officially certified results, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the election progresses and the results are tallied.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Major developments in the campaigns of leading candidates, such as unexpected endorsements or controversies, could shift voter sentiment and impact trading activity. Changes in polling data, particularly if they indicate a substantial shift in support for a particular candidate, would likely influence prices. Additionally, any significant external events, like geopolitical developments or economic shocks, could also affect the market, as traders adjust their expectations based on the evolving landscape of the Bulgarian presidential election.
