TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 11:41 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The Bulgarian presidential election will determine the third-place finisher in the first round of voting. Citizens will cast their ballots for various candidates, and the official results will rank these candidates based on the number of votes each receives.
Kalshi
The outcome is determined by the certified results of the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election. Rankings are based on the plurality voting system, where each candidate's position is determined by the total number of votes they receive, as published by the Central Election Commission. If a listed candidate achieves third place, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. In cases of exact ties between candidates for the third position, the market resolves proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Any candidate not listed on the event finishing third results in all markets resolving to No. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the ballot list is published but remain on the ballot are still ranked according to the votes they received.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While polls and expert opinions provide valuable insights, this market incorporates a wider range of information and real-time adjustments based on trader activity. Discrepancies can arise from factors not fully captured in polls, such as late-breaking news or subtle shifts in public sentiment. It's common to see this market diverge from initial expectations, especially as new information becomes available and traders refine their assessments of the likely outcome of the Bulgarian presidential election.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism, meaning traders set the odds by placing buy and sell orders for contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price fluctuates based on supply and demand – if more traders believe an outcome is likely, they will bid up the price of contracts representing that outcome, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Nov 25, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will settle based on the official results released by the Bulgarian Central Election Commission regarding the third-place finisher in the first round of the presidential election. The official results will be used to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual election results, and contracts will be settled accordingly. Traders will be able to view the final outcome and settlement details on Kalshi following the official announcement.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major developments in the campaigns of the leading candidates, such as significant policy announcements or unexpected endorsements, could shift trader sentiment. Public opinion polls released closer to the election date will also likely have an impact, as will any controversies or scandals involving the candidates. Unexpected economic news or geopolitical events affecting Bulgaria could also influence trading activity. Finally, any indications of voter turnout trends or changes in campaign financing could cause the market to react and adjust its probabilities.
