TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 11:41 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
During the Bulgarian presidential election's first round, voters will select their preferred candidate. The official certification will identify who secures the second-highest number of votes among all participants.
Kalshi
The outcome depends on the certified results of the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, using a plurality voting system. Each candidate's rank is determined by the total votes received, as reported by the Central Election Commission, irrespective of whether a second round occurs or who ultimately wins. If a listed candidate finishes in second place, the associated market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Exact ties for second place are resolved proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Should a candidate not listed on the event finish second, all markets resolve to No. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the ballot list is published but remain on the ballot are still ranked based on the votes they received.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the Bulgarian presidential election. While polls and expert opinions provide valuable insights, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, revealing what traders believe is most likely to happen. Discrepancies between the market price and analyst predictions can highlight differing assumptions or overlooked factors. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming your own assessment of the election’s potential results, as each offers a unique lens through which to view the race.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing a 'yes' vote on a candidate finishing in second place. The price of a contract fluctuates based on supply and demand – higher demand drives up the price, indicating increased confidence in that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the probability of that candidate achieving second place, as perceived by the collective intelligence of the market participants. Trading volume and price history are readily available on the dashboard to help inform your trading strategy.
This market resolves around Nov 25, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the first round of the Bulgarian presidential election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The candidate who receives the second-highest number of votes will be considered the winner of this market. Resolution will be based on the official vote count released by the Bulgarian electoral authorities. The market will then settle, and winning contracts will be paid out to those who correctly predicted the outcome.
Several factors could significantly impact this market leading up to Nov 25, 2027. Major developments in the campaigns of the leading candidates, such as significant policy announcements or unexpected endorsements, could shift trader sentiment. Public opinion polls released in the weeks before the election will likely influence prices, as will any controversies or scandals involving the candidates. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in the Bulgarian political landscape could also play a role, causing traders to reassess their predictions and adjust their positions accordingly.
