TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 3, 10:31 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of Bud Light sales in August 2026 compared to the same month in the previous year. It uses a specific measurement index to determine whether sales growth meets or exceeds various negative percentage thresholds. The outcome depends on reported point-of-sale data from a third-party analytics firm.
These markets resolve based on the Carbon Arc Bud Light Point of Sale Growth index for August 2026, comparing sales to August of the prior year. The index, where 100 represents equal year-over-year sales, is calculated using point-of-sale receipt data from both physical stores and online channels, captured through receipt scanning and rewards apps. All markets use the first reported value from Carbon Arc, with any subsequent corrections or revisions disregarded for settlement purposes. A Yes outcome occurs when the reported index exceeds the specified negative threshold for that market (-30%, -24%, -18%, -12%, or -6%). The index updates daily as new data becomes available. Kalshi clarifies it holds no official affiliation with the brand or data provider, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced assessment of conditions impacting Bud Light sales. While analysts may incorporate long-term trends and company reports, traders on Kalshi react quickly to news, social sentiment, and real-time economic indicators, which can create divergence from institutional outlooks.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will rely on officially released sales data and industry metrics that clearly show Bud Light’s point-of-sale growth for August, closing all trading activity at that point.
Key signals that could shift this market include major advertising campaigns, consumer sentiment surveys, retail partnership announcements, or unexpected economic changes affecting beer purchases. Any data hinting at August sales performance — whether positive or negative — will likely cause rapid price adjustments on Kalshi as traders reassess probabilities ahead of the final resolution.