TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks Bitcoin's price performance at a specific future date and time, using a standardized benchmark index to determine the outcome. The resolution depends on where the price falls within predefined ranges at the exact moment of evaluation.
All markets resolve based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) immediately before 5 PM EDT on September 25, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price range: one resolves if the average is below $66,000, another if it's between $66,000 and $66,499.99, and so on up to the final market which resolves if the average exceeds $89,999.99. The official price is calculated by averaging 60 BRTI prices collected in the final minute before expiration. All markets share this resolution methodology, with outcomes determined exclusively by where the calculated average falls within their respective price boundaries at the specified time.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a range of expectations for the Bitcoin price in late 2026. These expectations are formed by individuals actively putting their capital at risk, which can differ from those found in traditional polls or analyst forecasts. While polls and analysts offer opinions, this market represents what people are willing to *bet* will happen. It’s a crucial distinction, as it provides a measure of conviction behind each prediction, and can reveal insights into market sentiment that are not captured by surveys alone.
This market resolves around Sep 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will resolve to the price range that contains the closing price of one Bitcoin, as measured at 5:00 PM EDT on September 25, 2026. The closing price will be sourced from a widely-recognized exchange, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result for this market.
Numerous factors could influence the price of Bitcoin and, consequently, this market. Major regulatory decisions regarding cryptocurrency, significant adoption by institutions or corporations, and macroeconomic events like changes in interest rates or inflation could all have a substantial impact. Technological developments, such as advancements in blockchain technology or security breaches, are also potential catalysts. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in global economic conditions could also move this market significantly before Sep 25, 2026.