TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 29, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks where Bitcoin's price will settle across multiple defined ranges at 5 PM EDT on May 29, 2026, based on the sixty-second average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index. On Kalshi, the outcome representing Bitcoin below 65,000 currently stands at 19.0%, while the next range option is at 18.0%. Resolution will be determined by the simple average of BRTI readings in the final minute before 5 PM EDT on May 29, 2026, making the exact timing and index calculation critical to settlement.
Prediction market odds reflect traders' collective belief about Bitcoin's price range at resolution, often diverging from current spot price or analyst forecasts. While spot price represents the market value right now, the prediction market embeds expectations about volatility, adoption trends, regulatory shifts, and macroeconomic conditions over the next 18+ months. Comparing prediction odds to analyst price targets or historical volatility models can reveal whether the market is pricing in optimism or caution relative to consensus views. This gap often signals where informed traders see mispricing or underappreciated risk.
The market resolves on May 29, 2026. Resolution is determined by Bitcoin's price at the specified time and date. The outcome depends on which price range bracket Bitcoin closes within at 5pm EDT on May 29, 2026. Traders should monitor the exact settlement methodology and data source used by the platform to ensure clarity on how the final price will be verified and which outcome wins.
Major catalysts include regulatory announcements affecting cryptocurrency adoption or restrictions, macroeconomic shifts in interest rates or inflation, institutional Bitcoin adoption milestones, and geopolitical events influencing risk sentiment. Bitcoin halving cycles, network upgrades, and changes in mining economics can also drive long-term price direction. Shifts in correlation with traditional assets like equities or commodities may signal broader market regime changes. Additionally, developments in competing cryptocurrencies, central bank digital currency rollouts, and corporate treasury allocation decisions could meaningfully influence Bitcoin's trajectory toward the May 2026 resolution date.