TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 25, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event divides Bitcoin's price on June 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT into consecutive price ranges. Participants select which range they believe BTC will fall within, with bands spanning from below $52,750 to above $72,250.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 25, 2026. Each outcome represents a distinct price range; the market resolves Yes for the outcome whose range contains the final averaged price. CF Benchmarks' RTI is the authoritative price source, not general market data from other platforms. The official value is calculated by averaging exactly 60 RTI price points collected in the final minute before expiration.
Prediction market odds reflect collective trader expectations about Bitcoin's future price, often diverging from current spot prices because they incorporate forward-looking sentiment and uncertainty. While spot markets price Bitcoin in real time based on immediate supply and demand, this market prices the probability of specific price ranges at a defined future moment. Traders use both data sources to calibrate their views: spot prices show where BTC trades now, while prediction odds reveal where the crowd expects it to settle by June 2026.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each Bitcoin price range outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each range contract trades independently, and the price of a share reflects the implied probability that outcome will occur. As new information emerges or trader conviction shifts, bid-ask spreads tighten or widen, causing the odds for each range to move dynamically until resolution.
This market resolves around Jun 25, 2026, when Bitcoin's price at that specific time and date becomes verifiable. The winning outcome is determined by which price range contains BTC's actual value at the designated moment, confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. All other ranges expire worthless, and traders holding shares in the correct range receive their payout.
Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, macroeconomic data releases, regulatory developments affecting cryptocurrency, and shifts in institutional adoption or corporate treasury allocations. Geopolitical events, technology upgrades to Bitcoin's network, and large on-chain transactions can also influence trader positioning. Market sentiment around inflation, interest rates, and alternative assets like gold or equities will shape expectations for Bitcoin's price range, causing odds to shift as new information arrives.