TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 10, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event divides Bitcoin's price into specific ranges on July 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT. Each outcome represents a distinct price band, from below $49,500 up to $73,500 and above. The price is determined using CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), calculated as a 60-second average of 60 individual RTI prices collected in the final minute before expiration.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) prices collected before 5 PM EDT on July 10, 2026. The market resolves to exactly one outcome corresponding to the price range in which the average falls. The ranges are: below $49,500, $49,500–$49,999.99, $50,000–$50,499.99, continuing in $500 increments through $73,000–$73,499.99, and $73,500 or above. CF Benchmarks' RTI is the authoritative price source for this market, and traders should note that prices from other sources like Google or Coinbase may differ from the official RTI used for resolution.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders are willing to stake on specific Bitcoin price ranges, which often diverges from current spot prices or analyst forecasts. While spot markets price Bitcoin in real time based on supply and demand, this market aggregates forward-looking bets on where the asset will settle months ahead. Comparing the implied probabilities here to consensus analyst price targets or long-term technical forecasts can reveal whether the market is pricing in bullish, bearish, or neutral sentiment relative to conventional expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each Bitcoin price range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share pays out if the outcome occurs at settlement, and the current bid-ask spread reflects the market's uncertainty around which range will be correct. Prices move as new information arrives and traders adjust their positions, so monitoring the order book and recent trades helps you gauge real-time conviction in each outcome.
This market resolves around Jul 10, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed once Bitcoin's price at that moment is verifiable from credible public sources. The winning range is determined by where BTC is trading when the clock strikes the specified time, and all shares in the correct bracket pay out in full. Until that moment arrives, prices will fluctuate as traders reassess probabilities based on on-chain activity, macroeconomic news, and other signals.
Major catalysts include regulatory announcements, macroeconomic policy shifts, institutional adoption milestones, and technical developments in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Geopolitical events, central bank decisions, and shifts in risk appetite can also drive significant repricing. Additionally, on-chain metrics such as exchange inflows, whale accumulation, and network activity may influence trader sentiment. Closer to the resolution date, any breaking news about market structure or custody solutions could trigger sharp moves as traders lock in final positions.