TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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BTC price on Oct 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
⌛Ending Soon
kalshi

BTC price on Oct 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Oct 9, 2026, 4:00 PM EST - Oct 16, 2026, 5:05 PM EST
Total volume:
$1,595,512
Volume 24h:
$546,075
168%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$708,369
34%

$73,000 or above

 - Kalshi

$73,000 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 16, 2026

Time left: 01d:16h:32m

Bitcoin price on Oct 16, 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: 3,819% Illiquid market
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$73,000 or above

Trade
99%
1%
Yes 100¢No 4¢
4¢
N/A
$440
4%
N/A
$363
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$72,500 or above

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 2¢
2¢
N/A
$100
0%
N/A
$100
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$74,000 or above

Trade
98%
1%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$197
24%
N/A
$75
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$74,500 or above

Trade
98%
1%
Yes 99¢No 4¢
3¢
N/A
$67
22%
N/A
$25
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$70,000 or above

Trade
98%
Yes 100¢No 3¢
3¢
N/A
$1
0%
N/A
$1
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$76,000 or above

Trade
96%
Yes 97¢No 4¢
1¢
N/A
$1,065
19%
N/A
$546
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$75,000 or above

Trade
96%
Yes 99¢No 5¢
4¢
N/A
$798
156%
N/A
$798
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$75,500 or above

Trade
95%
Yes 98¢No 4¢
2¢
N/A
$1,237
20%
N/A
$655
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$73,500 or above

Trade
95%
3%
Yes 99¢No 4¢
3¢
N/A
$566
227%
N/A
$485
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$76,500 or above

Trade
94%
5%
Yes 96¢No 5¢
1¢
N/A
$2,527
31%
N/A
$1,439
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$77,000 or above

Trade
93%
Yes 95¢No 6¢
1¢
N/A
$15,463
73%
N/A
$8,012
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$77,500 or above

Trade
91%
5%
Yes 93¢No 8¢
1¢
N/A
$15,708
33%
N/A
$2,919
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$78,000 or above

Trade
89%
7%
Yes 91¢No 10¢
1¢
N/A
$58,910
363%
N/A
$42,646
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$78,500 or above

Trade
86%
9%
Yes 88¢No 13¢
1¢
N/A
$11,475
332%
N/A
$5,540
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$79,000 or above

Trade
80%
15%
Yes 84¢No 17¢
1¢
N/A
$45,403
19%
N/A
$20,716
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$79,500 or above

Trade
73%
20%
Yes 78¢No 23¢
1¢
N/A
$27,575
47%
N/A
$13,275
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$80,000 or above

Trade
70%
23%
Yes 72¢No 29¢
1¢
N/A
$188,538
24%
N/A
$102,832
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$80,500 or above

Trade
64%
23%
Yes 65¢No 36¢
1¢
N/A
$50,882
243%
N/A
$16,552
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$81,000 or above

Trade
55%
36%
Yes 57¢No 44¢
1¢
N/A
$94,825
80%
N/A
$28,857
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$81,500 or above

Trade
47%
31%
Yes 48¢No 53¢
1¢
N/A
$111,610
105%
N/A
$42,751
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$82,000 or above

Trade
39%
39%
Yes 39¢No 62¢
1¢
N/A
$208,782
72%
N/A
$66,131
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$82,500 or above

Trade
25%
47%
Yes 29¢No 72¢
1¢
N/A
$92,987
58%
N/A
$35,781
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$83,000 or above

Trade
19%
42%
Yes 22¢No 79¢
1¢
N/A
$135,579
60%
N/A
$34,372
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$83,500 or above

Trade
13%
42%
Yes 17¢No 84¢
1¢
N/A
$94,216
33%
N/A
$28,933
1d 16h 32m
active
kalshi

$84,000 or above

Trade
10%
36%
Yes 11¢No 90¢
1¢
N/A
$142,428
32%
N/A
$78,515
1d 16h 32m
active
Total markets: 25 of 50

Intro

This market tracks whether the average Bitcoin price will be above $70,000 at 5:00 PM EDT on October 16, 2026. Currently, the probability of this outcome occurring on Kalshi is 99.0%. Resolution will be based on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before the specified time. Keep a close watch on developments surrounding the halving event scheduled for Spring 2024, as it historically influences Bitcoin’s price trajectory and could provide early signals relevant to this market.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) immediately before 5 PM EDT on October 16, 2026. For each market, if this average exceeds the specified threshold (e.g., $70,000.00, $70,500.00, etc.), the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The official price is determined by collecting 60 BRTI prices during the final minute before expiration and averaging them. All markets share this consistent methodology, with each threshold defining a separate outcome.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Bitcoin price market tracks the current implied probability of various price ranges for BTC on October 16, 2026. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $1,595,512, and the 24-hour volume, which is $540,369. This allows participants to see how the collective prediction is evolving and where the most trading activity is focused. The dashboard provides a real-time view of market sentiment regarding the future price of Bitcoin.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to typical spot price expectations derived from polls or analyst forecasts. While traditional forecasts often rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents a weighted average of informed opinions expressed through actual financial commitments. This difference arises because traders in this market are putting their money where their mouths are, incentivizing more accurate predictions. Examining the discrepancy between these two viewpoints can provide valuable insights into market confidence and potential biases.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and asks, and trades occur when they match. The price reflects the probability of the Bitcoin price falling within a specific range on the resolution date. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume influence price discovery, with higher volume generally indicating greater confidence in the current price. Traders dynamically adjust their positions based on new information and their own assessments of Bitcoin's future value, leading to a constantly updating price.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Bitcoin price at 5pm EDT on October 16, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on data from a widely recognized and trusted source for cryptocurrency pricing. Traders will then receive payouts based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual Bitcoin price at the specified time. The market’s resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market over the next few years. Major regulatory developments concerning cryptocurrency, such as new legislation or enforcement actions, would likely have a substantial impact. Macroeconomic factors, including inflation rates, interest rate changes, and global economic growth, could also influence investor sentiment towards Bitcoin. Additionally, technological advancements, security breaches, or significant adoption milestones within the Bitcoin ecosystem could all contribute to price fluctuations and shifts in the market.