TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 24, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Bitcoin's price will exceed $52,999.99 on June 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 99.5%. Resolution is determined by the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) measured immediately before 5 PM EDT on the settlement date. Watch the final hour of trading on June 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT, when the BRTI snapshot will be taken to determine the market outcome.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 24, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the 60-second average exceeds the threshold value (e.g., above 51999.99 for the $52,000 outcome, above 52249.99 for the $52,250 outcome, continuing through $71,750). The official price source is CF Benchmarks' RTI, not alternative sources like Google or Coinbase. All 60 individual RTI prices collected during the final minute are averaged to produce the single definitive value used for resolution.
Prediction market odds reveal what traders collectively expect Bitcoin to be worth, whereas spot prices reflect what it costs right now. This market aggregates thousands of individual bets into a single probability, often diverging from analyst forecasts or traditional financial models. When odds shift sharply, it signals new conviction among informed traders. Comparing this market's implied price range to current spot levels and analyst consensus can highlight whether the crowd is pricing in bullish momentum, bearish headwinds, or stability over the next two years.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different Bitcoin price ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share pays out based on where BTC settles at the specified time, and the bid-ask spread reflects real-time supply and demand. Prices update instantly as new trades execute, allowing participants to enter or exit positions at transparent, market-determined rates. The platform's matching engine ensures fair execution and deep liquidity for both bullish and bearish positions.
This market resolves around Jun 24, 2026, once Bitcoin's price at that moment becomes verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the spot price recorded at the specified time on major exchanges, ensuring an objective and transparent settlement. Traders holding shares in the correct price range receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the event time, allowing quick settlement and capital redeployment.
Major catalysts include regulatory announcements from the SEC or international bodies, macroeconomic shifts in interest rates or inflation, institutional adoption milestones, and geopolitical developments affecting risk appetite. Bitcoin's correlation with equities and commodities means stock-market volatility, Fed policy changes, or recession signals can ripple through this market. Technical breakthroughs, security incidents, or shifts in mining economics also influence long-term price expectations. Traders monitor on-chain metrics, exchange flows, and whale wallet movements as leading indicators of sentiment shifts.