TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 15, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Bitcoin will trade above specific price thresholds on June 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT, with outcomes ranging from $54,000 to $74,000 or higher in $250 increments. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—Bitcoin trading above $53,999.99—carries a probability of 99.5%. Resolution is determined by the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) sampled immediately before 5pm EDT on the settlement date. Watch the Bitcoin market closely as June 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT approaches, when the BRTI snapshot will be taken to settle all outcomes.
The market resolves based on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) collected before 5 PM EDT on June 15, 2026. Each outcome represents a price threshold, with resolution to Yes if the average price exceeds that threshold. Thresholds range from $54,000 to above $73,750 in $250 increments. The official price is determined using CF Benchmarks' RTI rather than other sources. At the last minute before expiration, exactly 60 RTI prices are collected and averaged to produce the final resolution value.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders collectively believe will occur, which often diverges from current spot prices or analyst forecasts. While spot markets react to immediate news and technical factors, this market aggregates longer-term conviction about Bitcoin's value at a fixed future date. Comparing the implied price from market odds to consensus analyst estimates or on-chain metrics can reveal whether traders are pricing in bullish or bearish scenarios relative to mainstream expectations. This divergence often signals where informed traders see edge.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different Bitcoin price ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share reflects a discrete outcome, and the market price of each outcome updates in real time based on supply and demand. Traders profit by correctly predicting which price band Bitcoin will occupy at the specified moment, with payouts determined by the final settlement price verified against credible public sources.
This market resolves around Jun 15, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by Bitcoin's verified price at that exact moment. Once the event occurs and the price is confirmed through credible public reporting, the market settles and winning positions are paid out automatically. Traders should monitor the approach to this date closely, as price volatility in the final hours can shift odds significantly and create last-minute trading opportunities.
Major catalysts that could shift this market include regulatory announcements, macroeconomic policy shifts, institutional adoption milestones, and Bitcoin network developments. Geopolitical events, central bank actions, and traditional market volatility often correlate with crypto price swings. Technical breakthroughs or security incidents could also trigger sharp repricing. Traders should monitor on-chain metrics, derivatives positioning, and macro sentiment as leading indicators of where Bitcoin may trade by mid-2026.