TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 7, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Bitcoin's price will exceed a specific threshold on August 7, 2026, according to Kalshi, with resolution based on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index. The current probability of the leading outcome stands at 99.0%. Watch for the market to resolve at 5 PM EDT on August 7, 2026, based on the average price during the sixty seconds before that time.
All markets in this event resolve based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) immediately before 5 PM EDT on August 7, 2026. For each market, if this average exceeds the specified threshold (e.g., $51,000, $52,000, etc.), the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The official price is determined by collecting 60 BRTI prices during the final minute before expiration and averaging them. This methodology ensures a consistent and precise measurement for all threshold-based markets, with each threshold representing a distinct price level that Bitcoin must surpass for the respective market to conclude positively.
This market resolves around Aug 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will match the actual BTC price at the specified time, ensuring a clear and objective resolution based on widely accessible data sources.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including major Bitcoin ETF announcements, regulatory updates from key governments, unexpected macroeconomic data, or large institutional trades. Geopolitical tensions and technological developments within the Bitcoin network can also create volatility, influencing trader sentiment and adjusting odds in the lead-up to Aug 7, 2026.