British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on September 28? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on September 28?
Start: 2026-09-25T12:01:20.000Z
End: 2026-09-28T21:00:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 28, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 28, 2026, or if September 28, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.GBP%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 28, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 28, 2026, or if September 28, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.GBP%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the GBP/USD exchange rate being higher or lower on September 28th. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the trading volume over the past 24 hours, currently at $10. The total volume traded in this market is $10. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and participation levels regarding the future direction of the GBP/USD exchange rate. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how predictions are evolving as new information becomes available.

Currently, prediction market participants are strongly indicating a specific direction for the GBP/USD exchange rate. It's interesting to compare this to traditional analyst forecasts, which often rely on economic indicators and modeling. While analysts may offer a range of predictions, this market provides a single, aggregated forecast based on the collective wisdom of traders. The question is whether the crowd's assessment, reflected in the odds, will align with the actual movement of the exchange rate, or if expert analysis proves more accurate in this instance.

This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official closing exchange rate for the GBP/USD pair on September 28th. If the closing rate is higher than the opening rate on that day, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the closing rate is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered correct. The final determination will be made based on widely accepted financial data sources.

Several key economic indicators and geopolitical events could significantly influence the GBP/USD exchange rate and, therefore, this market. Major announcements regarding interest rate decisions from the Bank of England or the Federal Reserve would likely cause substantial movement. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, could also shift market sentiment. Geopolitical events, including political instability or trade negotiations, could introduce volatility. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the odds for this market before Sep 28, 2026.

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