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British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on September 21?
polymarket

British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on September 21?

Volume:
$770

British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on September 21?

 - Polymarket

British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on September 21? - Polymarket

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Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Closed: Sep 21, 7:02 PM EST

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British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on September 21?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$770
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) on September 21, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 21, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 21, 2026, or if September 21, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.GBP%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) on September 21, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 21, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 21, 2026, or if September 21, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.GBP%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the GBP/USD exchange rate being higher or lower on Sep 21, 2026. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the total volume traded in this market, which currently stands at $770. The 24-hour volume is also displayed, showing $192 in recent trading activity. This provides a snapshot of how traders are positioning themselves on the direction of the exchange rate, offering insight into market sentiment.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a strong expectation for a specific outcome. It's interesting to compare this to forecasts from financial analysts, who are often polled on their expectations for the GBP/USD exchange rate. While analyst predictions are based on economic models and fundamental analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders willing to put capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of disagreement or differing risk assessments regarding the future direction of the exchange rate.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the GBP/USD exchange rate will be up or down on Sep 21, 2026. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe the exchange rate will move in a particular direction, the higher the price of the corresponding shares will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the closing price of the GBP/USD exchange rate on that date. Specifically, the market will determine if the exchange rate is higher or lower than its value at the market’s creation. Traders will then receive payouts based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual movement of the exchange rate, as determined by this comparison.

Several key economic indicators and geopolitical events could significantly influence this market. Major releases like UK inflation data, US Federal Reserve policy announcements, and US employment reports are all likely to cause volatility. Unexpected political developments, such as shifts in government policy or international trade negotiations, could also play a role. Furthermore, any surprising news regarding the health of the global economy or changes in risk appetite among investors could impact the GBP/USD exchange rate and, consequently, the trading activity in this market.