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British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on August 17?
kalshi
polymarket

British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on August 17?

Volume:
$2,499

Above 1.337

 - Kalshi

Above 1.337 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 17, 2026

Closed: Aug 14, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 1.337

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$322
N/A
N/A
$270
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.339

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$292
N/A
N/A
$234
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.341

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$275
N/A
N/A
$275
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.351

View
100%
52%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$165
N/A
N/A
$161
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.343

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$105
N/A
N/A
$104
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.335

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$104
N/A
N/A
$104
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.349

View
100%
55%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$93
N/A
N/A
$45
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.329

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
$13
Settled
Yes
polymarket

British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on August 17?

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.331

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.333

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.353

View
100%
73%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.363

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$296
N/A
N/A
$286
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.357

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$224
N/A
N/A
$149
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.361

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$215
N/A
N/A
$161
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.355

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$150
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.367

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$66
N/A
N/A
$66
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.365

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$60
N/A
N/A
$60
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.359

View
0%
37%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$57
N/A
N/A
$56
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.345

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.347

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 21

Description

This event group determines the outcome of the British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate movement between two specific dates. The markets will resolve based on whether the GBP/USD rate is higher or lower on August 17, 2026, compared to a reference point defined by each platform's rules.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence in resolution methodology: Kalshi uses a single threshold check on Aug 14, while Polymarket compares consecutive reference daysHero tip: Traders should treat these as separate bets with different resolution triggers. Kalshi's market resolves based on a single price snapshot on Aug 14, while Polymarket's market depends on the price movement between two reference days. Monitor both Aug 14 and Aug 17 prices to understand potential outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if GBPUSD opening candlestick is Above specified thresholds at 5pm ET on Aug 14, 2026. Multiple threshold options exist from 1.329 to 1.367.
  • Polymarket: Resolves to Up if GBPUSD reference price on August 17, 2026 is higher than the reference price on the most recent prior reference day. Reference price is the Close value of the Pyth 1-minute candle at 4:59 PM ET.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) on August 17, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 17, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 17, 2026, or if August 17, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.GBP%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the GBPUSD exchange rate's opening value at 5pm ET on August 14, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a specific threshold; if the rate is above that threshold at the specified time, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth data is unavailable at 5pm ET, the most recent available value before that time is used. Post-expiration revisions to the exchange rate do not affect resolution. The evaluation depends solely on the opening candlestick value at the exact expiration moment.

Frequently asked questions

On some platforms, this market currently reflects a strong bias toward one direction, often aligning closely with recent analyst sentiment on major currency drivers like interest rate expectations or risk appetite. However, prediction market odds can shift rapidly with new economic data or geopolitical developments, sometimes diverging from traditional forecasts.