TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 25, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the precise closing price of Brent crude oil at a specific moment, settling based on real-time market data. It reflects short-term price movements influenced by supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and market speculation.
The event resolves based on the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick for Brent crude oil at 5:00 PM EDT on September 25, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold price, and if the closing price exceeds the respective threshold, that market resolves to 'Yes.' The settlement value is rounded to the nearest two decimal places. The closing price for the 1-minute candlestick at 5:00 PM EDT is defined as the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (i.e., the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM, which reflects trading from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM). If the specified source agency does not publish data for the exact time, the most recently available published data will be used to determine the settlement.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different price outcomes for Brent crude oil. The price of each contract reflects the collective belief of traders about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the latest insights. The current market prices indicate the implied probability distribution of Brent crude oil prices on the specified resolution date.
This market resolves around Sep 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price of Brent crude oil will be determined by the closing price on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) at 5:00 PM EDT on September 25, 2026. This price will be used to determine which outcome in this market is the winner. Traders will be able to see the verified price and the resulting outcome shortly after the resolution time.
Several factors could significantly move this market before Sep 25, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in major oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policy, are key catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also influence prices. Additionally, major disruptions to oil supply, like hurricanes impacting Gulf of Mexico production, or significant shifts in global inventory levels could cause substantial price movements. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding changes in this market.