TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 4, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the precise closing price of Brent crude oil at a specific moment, allowing participants to speculate on whether the price will exceed various thresholds. The outcome depends on real-time market conditions during a single minute of trading, reflecting immediate supply-demand dynamics and global economic indicators.
The event resolves based on the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick for Brent crude oil on September 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT. For any market, if the closing price exceeds the specified threshold (e.g., $68.99, $70.99, etc.), that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The settlement value is rounded to the nearest two decimal places. The closing price for the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM represents trading activity from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at exactly 5:00:00 PM. If data for the specified time is unavailable, the most recently published data will be used to determine the resolution. All markets share these uniform settlement rules, with each market having a distinct price threshold that determines its resolution.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of market expectations. While analysts may incorporate long-term trends and macro models, traders in this market price in real-time signals and sentiment. This can lead to differences in expected outcomes, especially around key events or sudden shifts in supply and demand dynamics.
This market resolves around Sep 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the actual Brent crude oil price at the exact time specified, removing any ambiguity about the result. Traders can track updates as the date approaches to see how market expectations align with emerging data.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including geopolitical developments affecting oil supply, changes in global demand due to economic shifts, and key announcements from major oil producers. Natural disasters, policy decisions, or unexpected inventory reports may also cause rapid movements. Traders will watch these events closely as they could dramatically alter price expectations leading up to Sep 4, 2026.