TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the precise closing price of Brent crude oil at a specific future moment, allowing participants to speculate on whether the price will exceed various thresholds. Each threshold represents a different level of price achievement at the exact close time, reflecting expectations about supply, demand, and global economic conditions influencing oil prices.
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 97 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 97.50 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 98 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 98.50 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 99.50 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 100 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 100.50 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 101 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 101.50 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 102 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 102.50 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 103 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 103.50 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 104 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 104.50 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 105 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 105.50 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 106 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on October 19, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 106.50 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions embedded in this market to those of traditional analysts. However, a common question is whether prediction markets outperform expert polls. Historically, prediction markets have often demonstrated a degree of accuracy comparable to, and sometimes exceeding, traditional forecasting methods. This market allows participants to synthesize information from diverse sources, potentially leading to more informed predictions than those from individual analysts or surveys. It’s important to remember that this market reflects the collective intelligence of its traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different price outcomes for Brent crude oil. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and generate a forecast for the price of Brent crude oil on the specified date.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the settlement will be based on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closing price for Brent crude oil futures contracts on October 19, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT. The final price reported by ICE will determine which outcome in this market is considered correct. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the resolution.
Numerous factors could influence the price of Brent crude oil and, consequently, move this market. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major drivers. Global economic conditions, including economic growth or recessionary fears, significantly impact demand. Unexpected supply disruptions, like those caused by natural disasters or infrastructure failures, could also cause price swings. Furthermore, shifts in energy policy, technological advancements in renewable energy, and even currency fluctuations can all play a role in shaping the Brent crude oil market.