TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the precise closing price of Brent crude oil at a specific future moment, allowing participants to speculate on whether the price will surpass various thresholds. The resolution depends on real-time market data captured at the exact close of a one-minute trading interval. Each threshold represents a different level of price performance, offering varied outcomes based on economic and geopolitical factors influencing oil prices.
All markets resolve based on the closing price of the one-minute candlestick for Brent crude oil on November 02, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the closing price exceeds the specified threshold for each market, ranging from $108 to $117.50 per barrel. Prices are rounded to the nearest two decimal places, and the closing price refers to the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (i.e., the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM). If data for the specified time is unavailable, the most recently published data is used for resolution. All markets share these consistent settlement rules, ensuring uniform methodology across varying price thresholds.
Currently, it's difficult to draw direct comparisons between the odds reflected in this market and traditional analyst forecasts. However, it’s worth noting that prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical analyst reports. Analysts frequently publish point estimates or ranges for future oil prices, while this market represents a probability distribution of possible outcomes. It will be interesting to observe how the market’s collective prediction evolves as we approach Nov 2, 2026 and compare it to prevailing expert opinions at that time.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different price outcomes for Brent crude oil. The prices of these contracts determine the implied probabilities. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the latest collective assessment of the future oil price. The market depth and order book are visible on the Kalshi interface, providing insight into the supply and demand for each outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the settlement price will be based on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Brent Crude Futures contract for November 2026, as reported at 5:00 PM EST on that date. The market will determine whether the price closes above or below a specific threshold, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi regarding the future price of Brent crude oil.
Numerous factors could significantly influence this market between now and Nov 2, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in major oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policy, are key drivers. Global economic growth or recessionary fears will also play a role, as demand for oil is closely tied to economic activity. Unexpected supply disruptions, like refinery outages or pipeline issues, could cause price spikes. Furthermore, shifts in energy policy, technological advancements in alternative energy sources, and even major weather events could all impact sentiment and move the market.