TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 23, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price of Brent crude oil futures on June 23, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT using the BRENTU6 contract. Settlement is based on the nearest listed contract month, rolling forward to the next contract 5 business days before expiration.
Settlement is determined by the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Brent crude oil using the BRENTU6 contract on June 23, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT, with price thresholds ranging from $74.00 to $83.50 USD per barrel. The settlement contract rolls forward to the next contract month 5 business days before the current contract's last trading day; contracts are named after their delivery month per standard exchange symbology. The candlestick timestamped at a given time reflects the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. All settlement values are rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and live market dynamics rather than static research reports. Traders in this market incorporate breaking news, supply disruptions, and macroeconomic shifts faster than consensus estimates update. While energy analysts publish price targets based on fundamental models, prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from thousands of participants betting on actual outcomes. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd is pricing in risks analysts may have underweighted or whether established forecasts are more bullish or bearish than market participants expect.
This market resolves around Jun 23, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed against credible public reporting of the Brent crude oil price. The final settlement reflects the verified market price at the specified time and location, ensuring all traders are measured against an objective, independently verifiable benchmark. Once the event occurs and the price is established, the market locks and payouts are distributed to holders of the winning outcome. Resolution timing is fixed to prevent ambiguity and allow traders to plan their positions with certainty.
Major geopolitical events—such as sanctions, supply disruptions, or Middle East tensions—can shift this market sharply, as they directly affect global crude availability. Central bank policy announcements and changes in interest rates influence energy demand and currency valuations, both critical to oil pricing. Unexpected production cuts or increases from OPEC members, refinery outages, and seasonal demand patterns also drive significant repricing. Economic data releases, recession fears, and shifts in renewable energy adoption represent longer-term signals that traders monitor. Weather events affecting production or transportation, combined with real-time inventory reports, provide additional catalysts for rapid market movement.