TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 16, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the Brent crude oil futures price at a specific moment on June 16, 2026. Brent crude is a major global oil benchmark whose price reflects geopolitical events, OPEC production decisions, global energy demand, and inventory levels. The settlement uses the closing price of a one-minute trading interval at 5:00 PM EDT for the BRENTQ6 contract.
Settlement is determined by comparing the 1-minute candlestick close price for Brent crude oil using the BRENTQ6 contract on June 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT against multiple price thresholds ranging from $78.00 to $87.50 USD per barrel, each in $0.50 increments. The settlement contract rolls forward to the next contract month 5 business days before the current contract's last trading day, with contracts named after their delivery month per standard exchange symbology. The close price represents the final price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. All settlement values are rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. If no data is published by the specified source at the designated time, the most recently available published data will be used for resolution.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and continuous price discovery rather than point estimates. While energy analysts publish price targets based on models and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the beliefs of traders who profit or lose based on accuracy. Prediction markets tend to incorporate breaking news and sentiment shifts faster than periodic analyst reports. Comparing the implied price from current odds to consensus forecasts can reveal whether traders are pricing in more bullish or bearish scenarios than the mainstream energy research community expects.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers trade contracts representing different price ranges or outcomes for Brent crude. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders submit limit and market orders, and the platform matches them in real time, with the mid-market price reflecting the consensus valuation at any moment. Each contract's price (typically quoted from 0 to 100) translates directly to implied probability or expected value. As new information emerges—OPEC announcements, inventory data, geopolitical events—traders adjust their bids and offers, causing the market price to move dynamically until the resolution window closes.
Major catalysts for this market include OPEC production decisions, geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions, US inventory reports, and macroeconomic data affecting energy demand. Unexpected supply disruptions, refinery outages, or shipping incidents can trigger sharp price swings. Central bank policy announcements and currency movements also influence crude valuations, since oil is priced in US dollars. Seasonal demand patterns, hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico, and shifts in renewable energy adoption represent longer-term factors. Traders should monitor energy news outlets, government reports, and global economic calendars for developments that could reshape expectations before the market settles.