TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 13, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the Brent crude oil futures price at a specific time on July 13, 2026. Brent crude is a major global oil benchmark whose price reflects geopolitical tensions, production levels, refinery demand, and macroeconomic conditions. The settlement uses the BRENTU6 contract's closing price at 5:00 PM EDT.
Settlement is determined by comparing the 1-minute candlestick close price for Brent crude oil using the BRENTU6 contract on July 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT against multiple price thresholds ranging from $71.00 to $80.50 USD per barrel, each in $0.50 increments. The settlement is based on the nearest listed contract month, rolling forward to the next contract 5 business days before the current contract's last trading day. The close price represents the final price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. All settlement values are rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the exact time, the most recently available published data will be used for resolution.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets from thousands of traders rather than relying on a handful of expert opinions. In this market, traders are directly wagering on where Brent crude will settle, creating dynamic pricing that responds instantly to new information, geopolitical developments, and economic data. Analyst forecasts tend to be published quarterly or annually and may lag behind market sentiment. Comparing the odds here to published oil price targets from major investment banks or energy consultancies can reveal whether the prediction community is more bullish, bearish, or aligned with consensus views on crude valuations.
This market resolves around Jul 13, 2026, once the Brent crude oil price at that specific time and date is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by the actual spot price or settlement price reported by major financial data providers on July 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT. Once the event occurs and the price is confirmed, traders' positions are settled based on which outcome range the final price falls into. Resolution typically occurs within hours or a few business days after the event, depending on data availability and platform processing.
Major catalysts for this market include OPEC production decisions, geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions, global recession signals, and shifts in renewable energy adoption. Supply disruptions from sanctions, conflicts, or weather events can spike prices sharply. Conversely, stronger-than-expected economic growth or increased US shale production could pressure prices lower. Central bank policy, the US dollar strength, and inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration are also closely watched. Traders monitor these signals continuously, adjusting odds as new data emerges. Long-term structural trends—like the energy transition and electric vehicle adoption—also influence expectations for crude valuations in mid-2026.