TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 6, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the Brent crude oil futures price at a specific moment on July 06, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT using the BRENTU6 contract. Brent crude is a major global oil benchmark whose price reflects supply disruptions, OPEC decisions, and global energy demand. The settlement uses the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick at that exact time.
Settlement is determined by comparing the 1-minute candlestick close price for Brent crude oil using the BRENTU6 contract on July 06, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT against multiple price thresholds ranging from $67.00 to $76.50 USD per barrel, each in $0.50 increments. Settlement is based on the nearest listed contract month, rolling forward to the next contract 5 business days before the current contract's last trading day. The settlement contract is named after its delivery month per standard exchange symbology. The close price represents the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. All settlement values are rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places. If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets rather than survey opinions. Traders in this market are financially incentivized to price in geopolitical risks, supply disruptions, and macroeconomic shifts that may lag in published analyst reports. While Wall Street forecasters update quarterly or monthly, this market reprices continuously as new information emerges. Comparing the implied price from current odds to consensus analyst targets reveals whether traders are pricing in upside or downside surprises relative to expert consensus.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different Brent crude price ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract represents a specific outcome, and the bid-ask spread reflects the market's confidence in that outcome. Traders profit by correctly predicting where the price will settle, with payouts determined by which range contains the actual closing price on the resolution date. Liquidity and tightness of spreads depend on overall trading volume and participant conviction.
This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning outcome is determined by where Brent crude closes on that specific date and time, verified against authoritative energy market data. Traders holding shares in the correct price range receive their payout once settlement is finalized. Early resolution is unlikely unless the event is canceled or postponed by the platform.
Major catalysts include OPEC production decisions, geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions, U.S. inventory reports, and broader macroeconomic shifts affecting energy demand. Recession fears or aggressive interest-rate changes can weigh on crude prices, while supply shocks—such as refinery outages or sanctions—typically push prices higher. Seasonal summer demand patterns and dollar strength also influence Brent valuations. Traders monitor weekly EIA data releases and central bank communications closely, as these often trigger sharp repricing in this market.