TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 31, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the precise closing price of Brent crude oil at a specific moment in the future. Each market has a different threshold, allowing participants to speculate on various potential price levels. The outcomes are determined by actual market data at the close of a one-minute trading interval.
All markets resolve based on the closing price of the one-minute candlestick for Brent crude oil at 5:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2026. For each market, a 'Yes' outcome occurs if the closing price exceeds the specified threshold (e.g., $83, $83.50, etc.). Prices are rounded to the nearest two decimal places. The closing price refers to the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval; for example, the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading from 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM. If data for the specified time is unavailable, the most recently published data is used to determine the settlement. All markets share these consistent settlement rules, with each market evaluating against its unique price threshold.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of market expectations. While analysts may incorporate long-term trends and macro models, traders on Kalshi react quickly to new data, news, and short-term price movements. This can lead to divergence, especially around geopolitical developments or supply shocks that shift near-term outlooks.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders submit bids and asks. The current implied probability reflects the balance of buy and sell orders, adjusting dynamically with each trade. Market depth and liquidity influence price discovery, and any surge in volume of $76,371 can cause rapid shifts in the odds.
This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will depend on the official closing price of Brent crude at the specified time, as reported by authoritative sources. Traders can monitor reputable industry feeds or financial news platforms for real-time updates leading up to resolution.
Several signals could shift this market before Aug 31, 2026. Geopolitical tensions, especially in major oil-producing regions, can cause rapid re-pricing. Supply disruptions — whether from sanctions, accidents, or production cuts — often drive upward pressure on prices. Conversely, strong economic data indicating lower demand or increased inventory levels may push odds in the other direction. Watch key OPEC meetings and global economic indicators for potential catalysts.