TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 24, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the precise closing price of Brent crude oil at a specific moment in the future, using standardized futures contracts to ensure consistency and reliability in settlement. Each market has a different threshold price, allowing participants to speculate or hedge against various potential price outcomes at that exact timestamp.
All markets resolve based on the closing price of a one-minute candlestick for the Brent crude oil BRENTX6 contract at 5:00 PM EDT on August 24, 2026. Settlement uses the nearest listed contract month, rolling forward five business days before the current contract's last trading day. Contracts are named by their delivery month rather than expiration date, following standard exchange symbology. Prices are rounded to the nearest two decimal places, with the candlestick close defined as the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. If data is unavailable at the specified time, the most recent published data determines resolution. Each market has a unique threshold, resolving to 'Yes' only if the price exceeds its specific level.
While analyst forecasts may vary based on supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical factors, prediction market odds for this market reflect real-time trader sentiment and bets. Traders are pricing in a range of possible outcomes based on current information, which can diverge from traditional analyst predictions due to the market’s speculative nature and rapid updates.
On Kalshi, traders actively set the odds for the Brent crude oil price market through continuous bidding and offering. The current probability reflects collective trader expectations about where oil prices will land by Aug 24, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Market depth and liquidity, indicated by volume of $103,236, help determine how sensitive the price is to new information. As we approach the resolution date, any significant shifts in supply, demand, or geopolitical developments can cause rapid changes in this market’s pricing on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Aug 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the actual Brent crude oil price at the specified time, removing any ambiguity about the result.
Several key signals or events could shift this market before it resolves. Major disruptions in oil supply—such as conflicts, accidents, or sanctions—affecting key producers will likely push prices higher. Conversely, increases in global storage levels, higher-than-expected production from major exporters, or weaker-than-anticipated demand growth could drive prices down. Additionally, unexpected changes in inventory reports, currency fluctuations, or shifts in monetary policy that impact commodity markets may also influence this market. Traders will be closely monitoring these developments as they unfold between now and Aug 24, 2026.