TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 17, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
The event determines whether Brent crude oil prices exceed specific thresholds at a precise moment in time, reflecting immediate market conditions without considering broader economic factors or trends.
Each market resolves based on whether the closing price of a one-minute candlestick for Brent crude oil, using the BRENTV6 contract, at 5:00 PM EDT on August 17, 2026, exceeds a specified threshold. Settlement uses the nearest listed contract month, switching to the next contract five business days before the current contract's last trading day. Contracts are named by their delivery month, not expiration date, and prices are rounded to the nearest cent. The closing price represents the end of the minute preceding the timestamp, and if data is unavailable, the most recent published price is used. All markets share these consistent secondary rules for determining the settlement price and handling data availability.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of market expectations. While analysts may incorporate macro models and supply-demand projections, traders on Kalshi price in real-time reactions to news, inventory reports, and geopolitical developments. This can lead to tighter or wider spreads depending on recent events and market uncertainty.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders submit bids and asks based on their expectations for the Brent crude oil price. The current top outcome reflects the aggregate of all active bets, with odds adjusting dynamically as new information emerges and trading volume changes.
This market resolves around Aug 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the official Brent crude oil price as recorded at the specified time and date, closing all positions based on that verified value.