TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 10, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event determines whether Brent crude oil prices exceed specific thresholds at a precise moment in time, reflecting immediate market conditions rather than trends or averages.
Each market resolves based on the closing price of a one-minute candlestick for Brent crude oil using the BRENTV6 contract at 5:00 PM EDT on August 10, 2026. The settlement uses the nearest listed contract month, switching to the next contract five business days before the current contract's last trading day. Prices are rounded to the nearest two decimal places, with the closing price defined as the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. If data is unavailable for the specified time, the most recent published data is used. Markets resolve to 'Yes' if the closing price exceeds the specified threshold; otherwise, they resolve to 'No'.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of market expectations. While analysts may incorporate long-term trends and macroeconomics, traders in this market price in real-time signals and sentiment. This can lead to divergence, especially around key geopolitical or supply-demand events that shift expectations rapidly.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous trading where participants submit bids and asks to determine the probability of each possible outcome. The current top outcome reflects the aggregate assessment of all active traders on the platform, adjusted for liquidity and recent trading volume. Prices update dynamically as new information emerges.
This market resolves around Aug 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the actual Brent crude oil price at the specified time, removing speculation and aligning the market result with observed reality.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including OPEC+ production decisions, unexpected geopolitical tensions affecting supply routes, inventory reports from major agencies, and shifts in global demand due to economic changes. Each of these factors can cause rapid re-pricing as traders adjust their expectations about the future price of Brent crude oil.