TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 3, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event determines whether Brent crude oil prices will exceed specific thresholds at a precise moment in the future. It tracks the closing price of a standardized oil futures contract at a set time, reflecting market expectations about supply, demand, and global economic conditions influencing oil valuation.
All markets resolve based on the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick for Brent crude oil using the BRENTV6 contract at 5:00 PM EDT on August 03, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold price; if the closing price exceeds the respective threshold, that market resolves to Yes, otherwise No. Settlement uses the nearest listed contract month, switching to the next contract five business days before the current contract's last trading day. Contracts are named by their delivery month, not expiration date, and prices are rounded to the nearest cent. The closing price for a given timestamp reflects the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval. If data is unavailable for the specified time, the most recent published data determines the outcome.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of market expectations. While analysts may incorporate macro models and supply-demand projections, traders in this market price in real-time reactions to news, inventory reports, and geopolitical developments. The resulting odds can diverge noticeably from institutional outlooks, especially ahead of key events that shift market sentiment quickly.
This market resolves around Aug 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the actual Brent crude oil price at the specified time, as reported by authoritative sources. Traders should monitor major financial news outlets and pricing agencies for the official closing value that determines payouts.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including weekly oil inventory reports from major agencies, unexpected geopolitical tensions affecting supply routes, and shifts in global demand due to economic changes. Central bank policies, especially those influencing energy consumption or inflation targets, may also impact trader sentiment. Any surprise production decisions by major oil exporters could cause rapid re-pricing in this market.