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Brazil unemployment rate in September
kalshi

What will Brazil’s unemployment rate be?

Volume:
$4,285

Above 5.1%

 - Kalshi

Above 5.1% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 7:55 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 5.1%

View
100%
34%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$509
N/A
N/A
$52
3d 12h 27m
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.8%

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
$5
3d 12h 27m
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,353
N/A
N/A
$453
3d 12h 27m
No
kalshi

Above 5.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$796
N/A
N/A
$642
3d 12h 27m
No
kalshi

Above 5.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$723
N/A
N/A
$494
3d 12h 27m
No
kalshi

Above 5.6%

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$495
N/A
N/A
$53
3d 12h 27m
No
kalshi

Above 5.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$253
N/A
N/A
$236
3d 12h 27m
No
kalshi

Above 5.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$147
N/A
N/A
$33
3d 12h 27m
No
kalshi

Above 4.9%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 12h 27m
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.0%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 12h 27m
Yes
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks Brazil's unemployment rate performance over a specific three-month period ending in September 2026. Participants assess whether the rate exceeds various threshold levels, reflecting expectations about economic health and labor market conditions in Brazil during that timeframe.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on Brazil's official unemployment rate reported for the rolling quarter ending September 2026. Each market has a specific threshold: if the reported rate exceeds the respective threshold (ranging from 4.8% to 5.7%), that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Thresholds are evaluated independently, allowing for multiple markets to resolve as Yes or No depending on where the actual rate falls relative to each threshold. The outcome depends solely on the numerical comparison between the published unemployment rate and each market's predetermined level.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Brazilian unemployment market tracks the current implied probabilities for various outcomes of the September unemployment rate. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has valued different possibilities over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $130, and the total volume traded to date, which is $4,285. This provides a clear overview of market activity and sentiment surrounding the upcoming economic data release.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of the Brazilian unemployment rate in September, potentially differing from traditional analyst forecasts. These forecasts, often based on econometric models and expert opinion, may weigh different factors than the diverse perspectives represented in this market. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets incorporate real-time information and a wider range of viewpoints, potentially leading to a more accurate prediction than single-source analyses. This market allows for a dynamic comparison against prevailing expert expectations.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different unemployment rate outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of market expectations. The current market prices indicate what traders collectively believe is the most likely scenario for the Brazilian unemployment rate in September.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Brazilian unemployment rate for September is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official unemployment rate released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), which is the standard measure used for economic analysis. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their chosen contracts align with the final, verified unemployment rate figure.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases from Brazil, such as inflation figures or GDP growth, could influence trader sentiment. Changes in Brazilian government policy related to employment or labor laws could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, global economic conditions and investor risk appetite can play a role, as they affect the overall outlook for emerging markets like Brazil. Any news impacting business confidence or hiring trends will likely be reflected in the prices within this market.