TOTAL VOLUME:
$148.8b
24H VOL:
$198,054,468
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,818,096,072
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,851,647,753
460,044
Markets across
34,696
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,795
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Roraima
- Kalshi
Roraima - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 25, 2027
Latest in Elections
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Roraima in the Brazil presidential runoff?
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Description
The outcome tracks whether Flávio Bolsonaro secures the highest vote count in individual Brazilian states during the 2026 presidential runoff. Each state's result is evaluated separately, focusing solely on domestic votes within that state's borders.
Kalshi
Each market assesses whether Flávio Bolsonaro achieves first place in a specified Brazilian state during the October 25, 2026 presidential runoff. Rankings derive exclusively from runoff vote totals certified by Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) for that state. In the event of tied vote counts, resolution occurs proportionally (1 divided by the number of tied entities). Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked according to the votes they received. Overseas votes are excluded from all state calculations. The five markets correspond to the states of Amapá, Amazonas, Minas Gerais, Pará, and Tocantins, each evaluated under identical criteria.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each state Bolsonaro might win, and the price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect changing expectations. The current prices on Kalshi represent the collective wisdom of those trading on the event, and are influenced by factors like polling data, news reports, and political analysis. The volume traded on each state provides insight into how strongly traders feel about each outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 25, 2027, with the outcome determined by which states Flávio Bolsonaro is officially declared to have won following the Brazilian presidential runoff election. The results will be verified against credible public reporting from official election authorities. The market will settle based on the official results announced by these sources, confirming the final state-by-state breakdown of the election. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the verified outcome of the Brazilian presidential runoff.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before Nov 25, 2027. Major developments in the campaign, such as significant policy announcements, unexpected endorsements, or impactful debate performances, could shift voter sentiment and influence trading activity. Economic data releases, particularly those related to Brazil’s economic outlook, could also play a role. Furthermore, any unforeseen political events or controversies could introduce volatility and lead to price adjustments in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the evolving probabilities of different outcomes.
