TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 10:55 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This evaluates Flávio Bolsonaro's performance among Brazilian expatriates voting in specific foreign countries during the 2026 runoff. Each country is assessed independently based on votes cast by Brazilians residing there.
Kalshi
These markets determine whether Flávio Bolsonaro leads the vote counts among Brazilian citizens residing in specific countries during the October 25, 2026 presidential runoff. Results are based on certified runoff vote totals reported by Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) for each country's expatriate voting district. Tie resolution follows proportional allocation (1/number of tied entities). Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked by the votes they receive. Each market corresponds to a separate country—Mexico, Chile, Uruguay, Colombia, and Costa Rica—with overseas votes counted independently from domestic totals.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While some analysts predict a clear frontrunner in terms of international support, this market demonstrates a more nuanced view, suggesting a wider range of potential outcomes are still possible. It's important to remember that analysts rely on publicly available information and expert opinion, whereas this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a broader spectrum of data and perspectives. This can lead to divergences in predictions, offering a valuable alternative viewpoint.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the probability of each country supporting Flávio Bolsonaro. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective assessment of that outcome's likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of expectations. The higher the price, the greater the perceived chance of that outcome occurring.
This market resolves around Nov 25, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which countries officially offer public support for Flávio Bolsonaro during the specified period. This support will be determined by statements from government officials, diplomatic endorsements, or other verifiable forms of public backing. The market will settle based on a clear determination of which countries meet these criteria, reflecting the international landscape at the time.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements from influential international leaders, shifts in geopolitical alliances, or unexpected political developments in key countries could all cause the odds to shift. Significant polling data releases regarding international perceptions of Bolsonaro could also move the market. Furthermore, any statements from Bolsonaro himself regarding his international outreach efforts could influence trader sentiment and adjust the probabilities reflected in this market.
