TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 10:57 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks voter participation in Brazil's 2026 presidential election runoff, focusing on whether specific participation thresholds are met. The outcome depends on the officially certified total number of votes cast, including blank and null ballots, as reported by Brazil's electoral authority.
Kalshi
The event determines whether the total number of votes cast in the second round (runoff) of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election meets or exceeds one of several specified thresholds (ranging from 119 million to 129 million votes, including blank and null votes). The vote count is derived from the officially certified results reported by Brazil’s Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), encompassing all validly cast ballots in the presidential contest alone. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are counted only if included in the official certification. The contract resolves based solely on these certified results, disregarding any ongoing appeals, preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified data. Thresholds are evaluated against the final, authoritative tally to determine market resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages for the Brazil presidential runoff. While polls attempt to capture stated voter intentions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *risk* on a particular outcome. This difference can be significant, as markets incorporate not only predicted voter behavior but also perceptions of poll accuracy, potential for unexpected events, and strategic voting. Any discrepancies between this market and polls may indicate differing beliefs about the likelihood of various scenarios.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit bids (the price they’re willing to buy a ‘yes’ contract) and asks (the price they’re willing to sell). When a bid and ask match, a trade occurs. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the implied probability of that specific voter turnout range occurring. Higher prices indicate greater perceived likelihood, while lower prices suggest lower probability. Volume and order book depth also influence price discovery, providing insights into market confidence.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official voter turnout percentage is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official figures released by Brazil’s electoral authority. The contracts will then pay out based on whether the actual turnout falls within the ranges defined by the market contracts. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct turnout range will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for incorrect ranges will not.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market leading up to Nov 1, 2026. Major developments in the campaigns of the candidates, shifts in economic conditions within Brazil, or unexpected endorsements could all influence trader sentiment. Polling data releases, while already considered, can still cause price adjustments if they deviate significantly from market expectations. Additionally, any reports of potential voter suppression efforts or irregularities could introduce volatility and shift the perceived probabilities within this market.
