TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6%
- Kalshi
Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Oct 25, 2027
Latest in Elections
Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 3% and 6%?
$
Description
This event tracks the expected vote difference between the two leading candidates in Brazil's 2026 presidential election runoff. It focuses on how close or wide the contest might be, reflecting potential voter alignment and electoral dynamics between the main contenders.
Kalshi
The event determines whether the victory margin in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff for either Flávio Bolsonaro or Lula da Silva falls within specific percentage ranges. Each market corresponds to a named candidate and a defined margin band (0-3%, 3-6%, 6-9%, or ≥9%). The margin of victory is calculated from valid votes only, representing the difference in vote share between the named candidate and their opponent if the named candidate wins, or the share of the eventual first-place finisher if the named candidate loses. Margins are evaluated without rounding, with each range inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. A tie results in a zero margin, and negative margins apply when the named candidate does not win. The market resolves to 'Yes' only if the actual margin precisely matches the specified range for the candidate in question.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for the Brazil presidential runoff. While polls and expert opinions offer valuable insights, this market represents a collective assessment based on real money at stake. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new developments and incorporate a wider range of factors than traditional forecasts, providing a potentially more dynamic view of the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes in the Brazil presidential runoff, and the prices of these contracts determine the implied probabilities. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the likelihood of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust, providing a real-time indication of market sentiment. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for efficient discovery of information and a constantly updated forecast.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official margin of victory announced by the relevant electoral authorities in Brazil. The final price of contracts on Kalshi will reflect the actual result, with contract holders receiving payouts based on the difference between their trading price and the final outcome. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major developments in the campaigns, such as significant policy announcements or unexpected endorsements, could shift voter sentiment. Economic data releases, particularly those related to Brazil’s economic performance, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any controversies or scandals involving the candidates could create volatility. Finally, shifts in polling data, even if minor, can impact the market as traders adjust their expectations leading up to Oct 25, 2027.
