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At least 44%
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At least 44% - Kalshi
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Resolves Nov 25, 2026
Latest in Elections
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
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Description
The 2026 Brazilian presidential election will feature a runoff between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. Markets track the certified percentage of valid votes each candidate receives in the second round, using official results from Brazil's electoral authority.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes if the certified vote share for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva falls within a specific percentage range from 44% to 100%, inclusive. The percentage is calculated from valid votes cast in the runoff round, excluding invalid, spoiled, blank, or rejected ballots. Results are based on certified official data from Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, with any post-certification recounts updating the outcome if they occur before contract expiration.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While polls and expert opinions offer valuable insights, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, allowing traders to express their beliefs about the election outcome with real money. Discrepancies between prediction market prices and analyst forecasts can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty, potentially signaling overlooked factors influencing the election. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming your own opinion on the Brazilian presidential election.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different vote share percentages for Lula. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices fluctuate based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating greater perceived likelihood. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades depend on correctly anticipating the final result of the Brazilian presidential election.
This market resolves around Nov 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official vote count released by the Brazilian electoral authority. The market will settle to the percentage of the vote that Lula receives in the official results, as reported by these sources. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the final vote share will be paid out accordingly, while those holding contracts predicting a different outcome will forfeit their stake.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major developments in the campaign, such as significant policy announcements, debates, or endorsements, could shift voter sentiment. Unexpected economic news or international events impacting Brazil could also influence trading activity. Polling data released in the lead-up to the election will likely be closely watched by traders, as will any reports of irregularities or challenges to the electoral process. Any news that alters perceptions of Lula’s chances of winning will likely cause price fluctuations in this market.
