TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Lula da Silva, ≥1%
- Kalshi
Lula da Silva, ≥1% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Oct 25, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Oct 25, 10:51 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the potential election outcome for Lula da Silva in Brazil's 2026 presidential runoff. It focuses on the difference between Lula's vote share and his closest competitor, measuring how decisive a victory he might achieve. The event considers various threshold percentages to categorize the margin of victory.
Kalshi
These markets resolve based on the precise vote-share margin by which Lula da Silva wins (or loses) the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff. The margin is calculated as Lula’s share of valid votes (excluding blanks and nulls) minus that of his nearest rival. A positive margin indicates a Lula victory; negative implies defeat; zero reflects a tie for first place. Each market corresponds to a specific minimum margin threshold (1%, 3%, 5%, 7%, or 9%), which must be met or exceeded for a 'Yes' resolution. All thresholds apply inclusive lower bounds and exclusive upper bounds with no rounding — for example, exactly 6% resolves in the 6–7% range but falls short of the 5–6% range. If Lula runs under multiple party labels or listings, all such votes are aggregated to his total. The rules ensure precise, unambiguous determination of outcomes based on official vote tallies.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the Brazilian presidential runoff. While polls and expert opinions provide valuable insights, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and potential outcomes. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to unique data points. It's important to consider both sources when forming a comprehensive view of the election's likely result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different margin of victory outcomes, and the prices of these contracts determine the implied probabilities. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the likelihood of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic and real-time estimate of the election's potential results. This mechanism allows for efficient price discovery and reflects the collective intelligence of the market participants.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official margin of victory announced by the relevant Brazilian electoral authority. The market will determine the winning outcome based on the official results, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Major developments in the candidates' campaigns, such as significant policy announcements or unexpected endorsements, could shift market sentiment. Polling data releases, particularly those showing substantial changes in voter preferences, are likely to have an impact. Additionally, any unforeseen economic or political events in Brazil could introduce new uncertainties and influence trading activity in this market. Unexpected news regarding voter turnout or potential challenges to the election process could also cause volatility.
