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At least 48%
- Kalshi
At least 48% - Kalshi
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Vol.
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Resolves Nov 25, 2026
Latest in Elections
Will Flávio Bolsonaro receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
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Description
Parallel to Lula's markets, separate contracts monitor Flávio Bolsonaro's vote share in the same 2026 runoff. The resolution depends strictly on his certified percentage of valid votes against the same electoral authority's official tallies.
Kalshi
Analogous to the Lula markets, each contract resolves to Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro's certified vote share meets or exceeds a specified threshold from 48% to 100%, inclusive. Calculation methodology and result verification processes mirror those for Lula, relying exclusively on certified data from the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral and accounting for any applicable recounts.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than many analyst forecasts for the Brazilian presidential runoff. While traditional polls and expert opinions attempt to gauge voter intentions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases in polling, or the market’s ability to quickly incorporate new information. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming your own assessment of the likely outcome of the election.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief in Flávio Bolsonaro’s vote share. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the market believes is the true probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices can fluctuate rapidly based on news events, polling data, and overall market sentiment, creating opportunities for informed traders to profit from correctly anticipating the outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the Brazilian presidential runoff election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the percentage of votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro, as reported by the relevant electoral authorities. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution, while those who bet against it will forfeit their stake. The final price will represent the market’s collective prediction of Bolsonaro’s vote share.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major developments in the campaign, such as significant policy announcements from either candidate, could shift voter sentiment. Unexpected endorsements or controversies involving either candidate could also have a substantial impact. Additionally, the release of new polling data, particularly if it deviates significantly from current expectations, is likely to cause price fluctuations. Any news related to potential challenges to the election’s integrity or delays in the vote count could also introduce volatility into this market.
